Disintegrating Syria and Iraq

Spengler and Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon both agree that partitioning Syria (I would include Iraq) is the best option.

“Unfortunately we are going to face chronic instability for a very, very long period of time,” [Yaalon] said. “And part of any grand strategy is to avoid the past, saying we are going to unify Syria. We know how to make an omelette from an egg. I don’t know how to make an egg from an omelette.”

Ram Ben-Barak, director-general of Israel’s Intelligence Ministry, described partition as “the only possible solution”.

“I think that ultimately Syria should be turned into regions, under the control of whoever is there,” he told Israel’s Army Radio, arguing that Assad’s minority Alawite sect had no way to heal its schism with the Sunni Muslim majority.

“I can’t see how a situation can be reached where those same 12 percent Alawites go back to ruling the Sunnis, of whom they killed half a million people there. Listen, that’s crazy.”

And the money quote, from Yaalon:

Referring to some of the warring sects, Yaalon added: “We should realise that we are going to see enclaves – ‘Alawistan’, ‘Syrian Kurdistan’, ‘Syrian Druzistan’. They might cooperate or fight each other.”

Spengler believes that they will fight each other regardless but that the fighting will be less violent and less likely to spread to more strategically important regions if Syria is partitioned into ethnic –stans.

As I wrote a few days ago, partition is necessary in Syria (in Iraq as well), but it’s only half of what needs to occur if the goal is regional stability. The other half is that each –stan needs to participate in a larger corporate governing structure. On its own, Kurdistan, Druzistan, Alawistan, or Assyristan simply does not have the resources—material or demographic—to sustain its own development. On its own, each –stan is destined to become addicted to international welfare, a protectorate in all but name. What is needed is for each ethnic state to be satisfied with its own regional moral rule, so that together they might devise ways to pool their economic resources: a corporate board, representing each state, that controls taxation, international trade, and infrastructure development but absolutely nothing else.

The idea is pure fantasy, I admit. The massively exogamous, out-breeding Northern and Western Europeans haven’t found a way to do it, so there’s no chance the consanguineous Persians and other inbred Islamic Central-Asians are going to do it (inbred used here in a purely descriptive, non-pejorative way). But Syria and Iraq are both in ruins, they’ve hit rock bottom as nation states, so these are natural regions in which to test the idea of patchwork, corporate-oriented governance.



  1. With the thoughts you'd be thinkin said:

    The closest state in the Middle East to what you propose is Lebanon, of course it isn’t what you are proposing. However there are many lessons to be learned paticularly on recent events, their trash crisis. Basically the secretarian nature of Lebanon caused gridlock and incompetence, which resulted in trash piling up. The solutions proposed are basically create more landfills or export it. The create more landfills failed due to the secretarianism, as each communities garbage should be sent to their own community, which wouldn’t have worked as the Christians couldn’t and shouldn’t create new landfills because of lack of acceptable land that wouldn’t contaminate ground water. This was further compounded due to the powerplant in a Christian area that benefits the country as a whole but pollutes the local air. The attempt to export the trash has also recently failed. So the Lebanese have to learn to live with the trash.




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